The Most Powerful List in American Politics

Much has been written about what’s next for the national movement that sprung up around the Obama campaign. The fruit of the Obama campaign’s organizational prowess is a multi-million member supporter list, probably the most powerful political list ever amassed in American history. As someone who has extensively worked with the lists built by the campaigns of Howard Dean (as an employee of Democracy for America from 2005-2006) and John Kerry (as a consultant for Friends of John Kerry from 2007-2008), I may have some unique insight into what exactly is going to happen next.

The list the Obama campaign has built is truly unprecedented. Some educated guesses as to the numbers:

• 10-12 million email addresses
• 3-5 million mobile numbers
• 3-4 million donors
• 1-2 million registered users on My.BarackObama.com

There is certainly overlap in these guesstimates. Many supporters will fall into two, three, or all four of those categories. For simplicity’s sake, all these supporters will be considered “the list”.

One rather major (and obvious) caveat: The Dean and Kerry campaigns lost, and they lost in a manner that was quite heartbreaking to their supporters. The Obama campaign won, and in a big way. That’s new for Democrats with national lists. These are truly uncharted waters.

That being said, some predictions:

• The list will atrophy fast. Shockingly fast. Without exercising it, a list after the end of a political campaign tends to waste away. Win or lose, the vast majority of supporters will simply not want to be bothered with communications after a campaign. They’ll unsubscribe, or hit the “Spam” button above their inbox. While committed and vocal activists will remain, and will certainly remain in a higher percentage due to Obama’s victory, the fact remains that the horse race of a campaign brings people in, not the sausage-making of governing.
• The Obama team has no choice but to actively nurture the list. Much like publicly-held corporations must always look to increase shareholder value, the Obama list is similarly duty-bound to keep their list from stagnating. Usually, organic list-building is issue-based, and most effective for those out of power. How list-building will be done while Obama is sitting as president remains to be seen. But it’s vital, as not only does he have a re-election campaign in four years, but the entirety of the Democratic Party will be dependent on a strong Obama list for 2010.
• A fundraising email from President Obama to his list will be the most coveted asset to Democratic campaigns in 2010. The Dean and Kerry lists greatly contributed to the Democratic landslide of 2006 by providing an influx of online fundraising for congressional campaigns across the country. The Obama list dwarfs that of the 2004 campaigns, and will leave Democratic campaign managers across the country salivating with dollar signs in their eyes. While midterm elections are usually bad for the sitting president’s party, it would appear that Democrats have a very realistic shot at achieving a filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2010. A few fundraising emails from the sitting president makes that goal much easier.
• List ownership will be transferred to a leadership PAC. Departing from Micah’s prediction for My.BarackObama.com, it’s highly unlikely that the Obama list will become property of the Democratic National Committee. More likely, Obama will resurrect his pre-campaign Hopefund PAC, possibly renaming it to something like the “Changing America Fund”. In addition to keeping a bank account for 2012 and raising money for down-ballot campaigns until then, the PAC could also be used to:
  • Raise awareness about specific issues and bits of legislation President Obama is championing through petitions and other online actions, which helps keep the list fresh and active. Imagine President Obama, giving a prime time television address, sitting in the Oval Office with a stack of 10 million signatures next to him (although that would be a waste of printing paper).
  • Fund organizers to help in down-ballot campaigns from 2009-2011. That includes not only federal Senate and House campaigns, but state-level campaigns and even ballot initiatives.
  • Support organizers and supporters in their own efforts for change. Some Howard Dean supporters were inspired to run for office themselves in 2004 and 2006, propelled by Dean’s slogan of “You Have the Power”. Will “Yes We Can” lead to a mass movement of civic engagement never before seen in America?
  • Most importantly, keep the Obama network intact by promoting on-the-ground, grassroots activism through 2012, when it’ll need to be activated again.

An interesting thing to consider about a possible “Changing America Fund” is who would serve as the public face of such an organization. President Obama being deeply involved in a PAC’s activities would seem overtly political. It may be possible to go the MoveOn.org route, and have no public spokesperson, and instead focus on the membership. Or Obama campaign manager David Plouffe can act as the Chair or Director.

The possibilities described above are roughly the paths the Dean and Kerry organizations took after 2004, with a bit of 20/20 hindsight thrown in. While the Obama team has proven they can do everything bigger and better than what was done in 2004, they’ve also shown a penchant for breaking entirely new ground. It’ll be fun to watch what they do next.