Personal Democracy Plus Our premium content network. LEARN MORE You are not logged in. LOG IN NOW >

Where Obama's Ground Soldiers Were, and Who They Are

BY Nick Judd | Thursday, November 8 2012

Ryan Enos / Eitan Hersh

A just-concluded research project studied thousands of Obama for America ground volunteers as they knocked on doors and made phone calls in their effort to get Barack Obama into the White House for another four years. Field organizers and volunteers answered a survey presented to them as they accessed a common piece of campaign software. This map shows where they were as they were answering the survey — campaign data exhaust that proves Obama's ground game was at its strongest exactly where Mitt Romney's campaign needed it to be weak.

According to this map, the Obama campaign concentrated its efforts on the ground game in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, and North Carolina. Another graph not adjusted to take into account electoral votes shows Wisconsin and Michigan in the mix, too.

Much has been said already this year about how political campaigns, especially Democrats and especially the 2012 campaign to re-elect Barack Obama, have been furiously working to understand the minds of American voters with empirical precision.

But academic researchers are also hoping to find out more about Obama's campaigners themselves.

One result of the Obama campaign's willingness to cooperate with academic researchers is the above map, which actually doesn't say anything about American voters. Instead, it's a map of how many Obama for America field workers were in each state relative to that state's importance in the race to 270 electoral votes. It was released today as one of the first results of academic research into the mind of the Obama volunteer. Because the researchers were at work for months, they were even able to track where volunteers were over time.

From June 11 to Nov. 6, they worked with the cooperation of Obama for America and the software company NGP VAN to present questionnaires at random to volunteers and campaign workers on Obama's re-election effort. The result, they announced today, is a dataset of survey responses from nearly 4,000 Obama for America campaign workers selected at random from across the country.

Volunteers and field workers on Obama's campaign used NGP VAN's VoteBuilder software to record their every contact with voters. It is the same tool that many Democratic campaigns also use. The two researchers used VoteBuilder to open a window into the Obama campaign's inner workings.

Workers logging in to NGP-VAN software had a one in 100 chance of being asked to participate in the survey, Ryan D. Enos, a Harvard University assistant professor of government and one of the two principal researchers on this project, told me today. They were asked a series of questions to track how they thought the race was going, among other things, including questions designed to mirror what pollsters were asking American voters in mass phone surveys at the same time.

"We don't really know a lot about this army of people that works on campaigns," said Eitan Hersh, a Yale University assistant professor and the other half of the research duo. "We know they're out there. We know they're knocking on doors. We have a lot of stereotypes, that they're students who are taking time off from school, that they're retirees, that they're union members, but we don't know who these people are."

Consensus is building that the future of American politics is somewhat antediluvian, not in a torrent of expensive direct mail or television advertising but in a street-level organizing based on coalitions and a lot of one-to-one contact. It takes a certain class of campaigner to wage that kind of campaign, with training and understanding Democrats have in spades and Republicans willingly admit they will be trying for the first time.

Who is going to inherit American politics? This survey might have something to say about exactly that question, at least for Democrats.

If Republicans have a lesser understanding of themselves headed into whatever succeeds the days of television advertising and direct mail — days which, I think, people may soon be ready to say are over — it's mostly their own fault.

"It's much easier, in general, to work with the Democratic side, at least from the perspective of an academic," Hersh told me today.

There are two reasons, he said: One, the Republican operation is much more centralized.

"The Democratic operation has a much more open-source flavor to it," Hersh said. "They give logins to their data to a lot of people and their view is that this helps, that more people working on this data the better the outcomes will be. On the Republican side, you get the sense that it's more centralized, that they're more into controlling the data, and I think that is part of the problem in terms of our access for academics."

The other part, Hersh said, is the presumption that any academic is likely to be a liberal and as such is not to be trusted. Earlier in our conversation, he also expressed concern that if he tried to work with Republicans and Democrats in the same cycle, he wouldn't be able to work with either.

"They didn't explicitly say don't work on this with the Republicans," he said, "but everything in the political world is partisan, and just like a mail firm that just does direct mail doesn't work with both sides, it's hard to build a level of trust with any campaign if you're working with the other side. I think that's too bad, but I think that's the price you pay for studying sitting campaigns in a very in-depth way."

This post has been updated.

News Briefs

RSS Feed friday >

Chilean Anti-Corruption Resource: A Crowdsourced Database of Social and Political Connections

In countries where a small minority of social circles have a majority of the political and economic power, personal relationships can affect major decision-making, a serious concern of anti-corruption activists. A new web platform stores personal profiles of key players in Chilean business and politics, complete with biographies and personal and professional connections through family, education, social circles, employers and coworkers, to make tracking social relationships and conflict-of-interest easier. Called Poderopedia (from the Spanish word for power), the project sounds kind of like LinkedIn, but the creation and management of profiles is being crowdsourced out to journalists, activists and concerned citizens.

GO

Middle Eastern Telecom Accused of Working With Saudi Arabia to Spy on Citizens

Mobily, an arm of the state-owned Middle Eastern telecom giant Etihad Etisalat, has been accused of working with Saudi Arabia to develop software that would allow the government to bypass protections for social media users. The exposé comes from Moxie Marlinspike (neé Matthew Rosenfield), an expert in a certain type of malicious Internet attack called MITM (man-in-the-middle), whereby attackers intercept and secretly alter private messages exchanged via email and other social media platforms. GO

Saudi Religious Leader Warns Twitter Users of Consequences in the Afterlife

In late March, Saudi Arabia's top religious cleric said Twitter was for clowns and corrupters. Earlier this week, he said anyone using social media, in particular Twitter, “has lost this world and the afterlife.” His comments might be laughable, if they did not come at a time when the Saudi government is looking into monitoring or blocking social media sites and eliminating user anonymity.

GO

thursday >

What The Other Silicon Valley Immigration Group Is Doing This Month

A bipartisan coalition of political advocacy, business and tech groups are moving ahead to launch a social media blitz next week designed to persuade members of the Senate to vote in favor of immigration reform legislation supported in Silicon Valley. "We're going to create a virtual digital storm," said Jeremy Robbins in a Wednesday ... GO

The New Yorker Hopes "Strongbox" Is a Wiretap-Proof Sieve for Leaks

The New Yorker yesterday became the first outlet to implement DeadDrop, a new system for sources to submit information to journalists online in a more secure and anonymous way than, for example, email. GO

Female Organizer of Pakistan's First Hackathon Stresses Collaboration Over Competition

After Pakistan banned Valentine's Day this year, Sabeen Mahmud started an online protest in which people uploaded photos to mock the government ban. In the weeks following she received death threats and menacing phone calls, and early on she had to stay home from work. That did nothing, however, to keep her from further organizing. Last month, the café she started in Karachi hosted Pakistan's first ever hackathon, which tackled problems including sanitation, crime, disaster management, and education. She even invited a government representative to observe the initial conversations, tackling sensitive areas like government inefficiency and elections.

GO

wednesday >

White House Innovation Fellows Project Spins Off Into A Business

Clay Johnson and Adam Becker joined the Presidential Innovation Fellows program to help the White House fix the way government does business. Now they're turning that mission into a business themselves. GO

Fighting Fires With Data, New York City Launches New Safety Inspection System

Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced today that New York City has implemented city-wide a new risk based inspection system focused on fire safety that is driven by analytics from multiple city agencies. GO

Chinese Netizens Use Digital Initiative to Gain Media Attention for Unsolved Poisoning Case

Last month a medical science student at a Shanghai university died from poisoning, allegedly murdered by his roommate. The specifics of the crime echoed a case from the mid-1990s, in which a 19-year-old student was poisoned with thallium. That case has once again been thrown into the media spotlight, but after 18 years the media has changed and the spotlight means a trending hashtag on Sina Weibo or an online petition to the U.S. President.

GO

PDF France 2013: “Au Code, Citoyens!”

This year PDF France will take place in Paris on June 13, with the theme "Au Code, Citoyens!" ("To Code, Citizens!") The speakers' lineup includes some of the continent's leaders in the digital revolution. GO

tuesday >

Website Imitation is Flattery in New York City Council Race

A New York City Council candidate who had made his name as a technology consultant and spearheaded an open government initiative several years ago found parts of his website copied by another City Council candidate in a different borough, as Politicker first reported. GO

Mike Honda Locks Up Establishment Support, But Challenger Has Ear of the Silicon Valley Elite

Some of Silicon Valley's most influential business people will hold a fundraiser in San Francisco this Thursday for Ro Khanna, the 36-year-old lawyer who's challenging 71-year-old California Democrat Mike Honda for his 17th Congressional District seat. The names at the top of the invite: Ron Conway and Sean Parker. They're apparently forming a committee to help Khanna build his campaign. The other bold-face names who are listed as part of the 'committee in formation' include Salesforce.com's Founder and CEO Marc Benioff, Benchmark Capital General Partners' Matt Cohler and Peter Fenton, tech entrepreneur Shawn Fanning, Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer, her big data venture investor husband Zach Bogue, and Conway's SV Angel colleague, Founder and Managing Partner David Lee. GO

Tools to Keep Independent Media Online in Hostile Environments

Websites and media outlets in developing countries or countries with corrupt or repressive regimes struggle daily to fend off hacker attacks, some from their own government — like the Malaysian news portal Sarawak Report, which techPresident reported was taken down in April by sustained denial-of-service attacks. The negative attention controversial reporting draws can scare local advertisers away as well, making it difficult for a media company to support itself. Media Frontiers offers two services to websites dealing with either of those problems.

GO

monday >

Ahead of September Elections, German Pirate Party Picks Its Platform

The German Pirate Party held its election year convention over the weekend and approved its party platform, following lengthy debate over the role that online decision-making should have within the party, as German news sources reported and the party outlined on its own web platforms. GO

Peruvians Petition their President to Stick Up for their Digital Rights

Peru’s civil society advocacy groups have started an online petition outlining their ‘non-negotiable’ demands for digital rights and freedom of speech. The campaign was prompted by the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. Lima, Peru, will soon host the 17th round of secretive TPP trade talks, which will take place from May 15 – 24.

GO

Gun Control Advocates Take Aim At LivingSocial for Promoting Guns and Alcohol

A coalition of advocacy groups is launching a new campaign this week against the promotion of American gun culture. The campaign focuses on the daily deals site Living Social, which hasn't stopped promoting social events Hunter S. Thompson would have loved (they promote shooting off guns and letting off steam and drinking.) GO

More