Cross-posted from Network Weaving

The first U.S. presidential primary of 2008 is over and it was full of surprises. After the first inning, we have an unexpected lead.

One of the biggest shocks was on the Republican side -- Huckabee beat Romney. The low budget guy beat the the big spender -- shocking all of the pundits. The common wisdom in politics is that money wins -- s/he with the biggest machine marches on. Since Huckabee couldn't outspend his rivals he had to out-think them. [Lack of money frequently leads to creativity]. Huckabee chose to network his way to success. From USA Today:

"Huckabee, whose campaign has caught fire only in recent months, is largely relying on pre-existing networks within Iowa, ..."

He found local social networks of conservative Christians, gun owners, home schoolers and tax reformers. It was in these networks that Huckabee's message caught fire and spread to other networks that intersected with these. Soon Huckabee had large clusters of interconnected supporters, all reinforcing one another -- friends talking to friends.

Meanwhile, Romney and the others where following common campaign wisdom and setting up phone banks, canvasing neighborhoods and spending money in the mass media -- strangers talking to strangers.

What was the big difference between these two approaches? Huckabee was connecting to intact networks that had a long history together, while Romney was connecting to individual voters -- one at a time. While Romney's supporters were also members of social networks, they were talked to, and influenced individually, alone. Who knows what they did when they went back into their social network? Huckabee's networks all got the same message at roughly the same time -- they probably had very fewer defections.

From Newhouse News:

...ultimately, for all the talk about voting being a private act, it is in fact a social act in which individual behavior is hugely dependent on the thinking and actions of others.

Messages to people alone on the phone, alone in the car[radio], alone on the couch[TV], alone with the newspaper, alone with the computer, don't STICK the same way messages conveyed in a group of trusted others. Alone, we hear the message, forget the message, make the promise, forget the promise. In a group, we hear the message, discuss the message, internalize the message, make the promise to the group, keep the promise to the group. Huckabee supporters were more likely to remain in support for their candidate during the caucus process, than Romeny's supporters -- who promised support when alone, but had to act in a group at the caucus.

As I was thinking about these social network dynamics of voting, I got an email from Debra -- who had been entertaining similar thoughts...

"... and immediately thought of your "Conversation Stupid" article after Huckabee's upset win in Iowa. I told an economist / blogger friend a while back not to underestimate the power of Hucklebee's social network -- especially from the home-schoolers. I am a Democrat (former Republican) in a very red district in southwestern Ohio. I recently forwarded your article to some of my colleagues in our county party, along with my cliff notes. Unfortunately, the Democratic Party puts a lot of emphasis on phone-banking and door-to-door canvassing, but I am convinced that "brute force" methods such as these are ineffective. Our party is small and insulated in southwestern Ohio and I'm afraid it will stay that way if we rely too much on cold-calls to strangers."

In 2004, George W Bush won Ohio and therefore the presidency -- Ohio put him over the top in the electoral college. In several conversations I have had about the 2004 Ohio election I have been told that Bush won his slim majority in Ohio by also connecting to exisiting social networks. The Bush campaign used the social networks connected to churches thoughout the state -- not just evangelicals, but Catholics and Protestants also. The extended social networks of a couple hundred churches roughly equal Bush's 119,000 vote margin in Ohio in 2004.

We have heard that "all politics are local", now we also find out that "all politics are social".

Updates...
Huckabee continues "networking strategy" in Michigan
{Hat tip to Jill}.
Huckabee's social network army
{Hat tip to David}.