Cross-posted at Election Geek
Patrick Ruffini is breaking out the digital champagne seeing trouble from e-mail for Republicans as Obama raises 1.8 Million in a new appeal to voters. Ruffini gives three e-mails sent from the campaign credit. Not to be a skeptic, but do we know this was all done with e-mail? It might have but we don't have enough information to say it definitively.
There is some evidence that e-mail is not solely responsible. Consider the following. This week Obama:
- Gave a speech and held 3 town halls on the 16th
- Appeared to a national television audience on the Tonight Show With Jay Leno on the 17th
- Held 3 Town Halls & made 1 Appearance on the 18th
- Held a rally and had four appearances, three in California (think Hollywood) on the 19th
Meanwhile the campaign has brought in John Del Cecato to form a War room and step up the Clinton attacks.
So what we know is that in the same time the e-mails were sent Obama worked quite a few appearances. Those in attendance could have turned up online to give money just as easily as someone who clicked the e-mail. His campaign reformed his message which has a much more negative tone, something voters and larger contributors respond well to.
Obama appeared on national television, which was subsequently covered on 24/7 cable networks as well as local news and on radio programs across the country, not to mention funneled through print and the blogosphere. Finally the campaign received a new voice in the communications staff and undoubtedly made new appeals to bundlers and donors with lots of money who were weary from all the recent Clinton hype.
So can we hand it solely to e-mail? I don't think so. Can we assume that these are all individual contributors sitting online who were suddenly mobilized by said e-mails? We don’t know. I see no other information on the official site that shows us where the money is coming from and with the way the campaign counts contributions (T-shirts as individual contributors) I don't know if it was there that we could assume much from it.
My point is, I think the e-mails and the Web presence helped, but with all the other campaigning, television coverage and undoubtedly bundling I don't necessarily think we can pass this off as e-mail's triumph.
The lesson for Republicans and the other campaigns instead may be simple. Get a message and stay on it and milk it in every medium you can.
The negative impact of Hillary
I think people need to wake up as to why Obama is gaining so much attention. First, he occasionally breaks out of Democratic Party restraints. Secondly, and more importantly, many Democrats, liberals , and antiwar activists despise Hillary and are convinced she can not win.
Third, every time the Republicans beat up on Hillary, as they did tonite, Obama gains. The Democrats have a real worry here which is why the contest is so strong.