I Wouldn't Give E-mail All the Credit
By Jeff Commaroto, 10/21/2007 - 9:25pm

Cross-posted at Election Geek

Patrick Ruffini is breaking out the digital champagne seeing trouble from e-mail for Republicans as Obama raises 1.8 Million in a new appeal to voters. Ruffini gives three e-mails sent from the campaign credit. Not to be a skeptic, but do we know this was all done with e-mail? It might have but we don't have enough information to say it definitively.

There is some evidence that e-mail is not solely responsible. Consider the following. This week Obama:

  • Gave a speech and held 3 town halls on the 16th
  • Appeared to a national television audience on the Tonight Show With Jay Leno on the 17th
  • Held 3 Town Halls & made 1 Appearance on the 18th
  • Held a rally and had four appearances, three in California (think Hollywood) on the 19th

Meanwhile the campaign has brought in John Del Cecato to form a War room and step up the Clinton attacks.

So what we know is that in the same time the e-mails were sent Obama worked quite a few appearances. Those in attendance could have turned up online to give money just as easily as someone who clicked the e-mail. His campaign reformed his message which has a much more negative tone, something voters and larger contributors respond well to.

Obama appeared on national television, which was subsequently covered on 24/7 cable networks as well as local news and on radio programs across the country, not to mention funneled through print and the blogosphere. Finally the campaign received a new voice in the communications staff and undoubtedly made new appeals to bundlers and donors with lots of money who were weary from all the recent Clinton hype.

So can we hand it solely to e-mail? I don't think so. Can we assume that these are all individual contributors sitting online who were suddenly mobilized by said e-mails? We don’t know. I see no other information on the official site that shows us where the money is coming from and with the way the campaign counts contributions (T-shirts as individual contributors) I don't know if it was there that we could assume much from it.

My point is, I think the e-mails and the Web presence helped, but with all the other campaigning, television coverage and undoubtedly bundling I don't necessarily think we can pass this off as e-mail's triumph.

The lesson for Republicans and the other campaigns instead may be simple. Get a message and stay on it and milk it in every medium you can.

The negative impact of Hillary

I think people need to wake up as to why Obama is gaining so much attention. First, he occasionally breaks out of Democratic Party restraints. Secondly, and more importantly, many Democrats, liberals , and antiwar activists despise Hillary and are convinced she can not win.
Third, every time the Republicans beat up on Hillary, as they did tonite, Obama gains. The Democrats have a real worry here which is why the contest is so strong.

Not budging

While walk-in website donations do play a role, especially in Presidential campaigns, this campaign was pretty specifically geared towards achieving its goal predominantly through email appeals. The numbers moved quickest (as in six figures per hour) in the hours immediately after they sent emails and seem to slow down in other daytime hours outside email windows.

Though they would have been crazy not to count money that came in through other sources during this window, there are very few events that can drive half million+ online days -- usually campaign launches or a major primary victory. None of the events you describe really rises to this level.

That's why smart campaigns spend so much of their energy developing email lists -- because they can duplicate these blockbuster days at will and almost regardless of the broader political milieu (absent a total campaign collapse or something).

Though the Obama camp's lack of transparency relative to Ron Paul and RonPaulGraphs.com certainly leaves the numbers open to question, I think that's the most likely interpretation of this showing.

A dirty little secret

Since 2003, Democratic campaigns and organizations have always been using non-online fundraising numbers to pump up their public online goals. This includes not only fundraising from events, but direct mail as well and everything coming in from the high dollar fundraising committees. A savvy campaign (and Obama employs the savviest) will time it just right to produce a seemingly perfect storm. During the fundraising effort, those external totals get entered in at spurts when people are watching the online live totals so that it looks even more impressive.

I have no idea what the Obama campaign schedule was like this past week, but I would venture to guess that for the Leno appearance, Obama raked in $100K-$300K while in town from those radical Hollywood elites, and raised a similar amount on the 19th while he was in California again. Then, if the campaign knew that they were getting returns from a major direct mail campaign that week, another $100K could come in, and Obama's big dollar raisers, knowing that this was a big week, were probably good for another $100K. Again, these are all wild and completely irresponsible projections, but all within the realm of possibility.

What Luigi Said :)

While we have no way of truly knowing what the exact numbers are Luigi sums up well my thinking about how Obama was probably raising money during this time period.

Well I don't disagree with you entirely Patrick, I do have to say that just as researchers cannot discount the power of the Internet in organizing I don't think we should ignore the power of television or traditional campaigning either. Especially when they are in conjunction with an online appeal.

I think a network TV appearance spun throughout the MSM & online mixed with a new message is just the thing you need to reach millions. The only thing unique about the e-mails was the pitch which was "we have a goal and that goal is closing a gap with Clinton". As Nancy Scola pointed out they were pretty generic messages that were sent.

The only new and interesting thing for the e-mails was the MSM appearance hanging in the background and the heightened anti-Hillary pitch, both of which added urgency to action and all of which were nicely tied together in a tight and consistent presentation.

What we are seeing time and again is that these new tools, when used in conjunction with and as part of a larger media campaign, can really bring in not just money but real support. On their own though, I don't know that the jury is out and as Luigi pointed out, it is possible we are being slightly manipulated into believing all of this cash is coming in as a tidal wave of online support, when in fact how and when the numbers are entered and how traditional donors/bundlers are instructed to give could be adding to our perception.

For now, I remain skeptical.



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