Evaluating MoveOn.org's First Online Town Hall

No one doubts that MoveOn.org is one of the most powerful and versatile e-organizations of the 21st century. But a quick glance at participation rates in the group's first "Virtual Townhall" this week might make you think otherwise, as just 43,000 members voted in the straw poll that followed, not even two percent of the group's 3.2 million e-members. But figuring out what sort of participation rates matter online is a tricky process, and I think you shouldn't be fooled by these seemingly low numbers into thinking that the liberal-progressive base attached to MoveOn isn't paying attention to the primary race.

Tuesday night, seven Democratic presidential candidates participated in a live web-video townhall-style meeting, the first of three the group is holding on issues of greatest interest to its members. The topic was Iraq, and after hearing the candidates address US policy on Iraq--either by watching at home, attending one of a thousand house parties around the country, or listening to Air America's radio simulcast, MoveOn members had 24 hours to vote on which candidate they believed would be "best able to lead the country out of Iraq."

The results were announced today, and Barack Obama had 27.87% of the votes cast, followed closely by John Edwards with 24.74%. The remaining votes split as follows:

Kucinich 17.18%
Richardson 12.26%
Clinton 10.70%
Biden 6.19%
Dodd 1.05%

Interestingly, MoveOn members didn't have to watch the Town Hall in order to vote, and the vote from members (about 10,000 out of the 43,000 overall) who watched at one of the house parties showed a marked variation that, in theory, ought to make supporters of Edwards and especially Bill Richardson quite pleased:

Edwards 24.56%
Richardson 20.93%
Obama 18.61%
Kucinich 15.61%
Biden 10.27%
Clinton 7.22%
Dodd 3.65%

Clearly, the more Democratic activists get exposed to Richardson, the more they may like him. It looks like among MoveOn members who definitely watched the Town Hall meeting, Richardson gained more than eight percentage points, and took them almost entirely from Obama. (I didn't see any evidence of any of the Democratic campaigns pushing their email lists to participate in the MoveOn straw poll by the way; please correct me if you know otherwise.)

The 43,000 MoveOn members who voted in the straw poll are a fraction of the more than 300,000 who voted in the group's pathbreaking online primary in June of 2003, where Howard Dean nearly won the organization's formal endorsement and where his strong showing led to an immediate boost in his fundraising and volunteer base. So, does that mean MoveOn's list isn't as potent as it used to be?

This isn't an apples to apples comparison. MoveOn's online primary didn't demand a lot from its members, compared to watching an hour-long webcast and paying attention. Interestingly, about 600,000 votes were cast by MoveOn members to pick the questions that were asked of each candidate during the Town Hall, but less than one-tenth that number chose to participate in the straw poll that followed it.

In general, studies of online participation find the bigger the ask, the fewer the participants. Ninety percent of the visitors to most websites don't do anything more than read them. Perhaps another eight or nine percent occasionally comment. One or two percent do most of the heavy-lifting.

The question, of course, is whether this straw poll means much...though of course one could also ask that of the cattle-call straw polls that will happen over the course of this year in meat-space, too. MoveOn is doing two more Town Halls over the next few months, one in June on global warming and one in August on health care, and there are clear indications that the group will also hold another online primary at some point later in the year.