Barack vs Hillary: Gauging the Q1 Money- and People-Chase
BY Micah L. Sifry | Wednesday, April 4 2007
So Barack Obama is keeping track with Hillary Clinton in the money chase, with "over $25 million raised," compared to $26 million by her. Or, is he actually ahead, with $23.5 milliion raised for the primary, compared to some unknown subtotal for her? We won't know til mid-April, when the campaigns file formally with the FEC.
He certainly seems to be ahead in the people primary, with more than 100,000 donors, compared to 50,000 for Clinton. Online Obama's team claims more than $6.9 million, compared to $4.2 million "raised on the internet" by Clinton. But what do these numbers really mean?
Does "online fundraising" really mean anything anymore? After all, for many people, there's nothing special about making a contribution online--it's actually easier than writing a check, finding an envelope and a stamp, addressing it and mailing it.
Back in 2000, when Senator John McCain brilliantly gamed his New Hampshire primary win into a fake "online surge" of millions in donations, the press was gulled into reporting that this proved he was getting a huge and spontaneous bounce of support because so much of his money came in over the internet. What we now know from various anecdotal sources is that in fact his campaign team wisely parlayed the normal, to-be-expected jump in contributions into a bigger story by quietly pushing their donors, through telemarketing and other means, to make their donations online. Presto! the press bought the frame hook, line and sinker.
But today is there really that big a difference between a contribution that comes in online vs in the mail or in person? Obviously there are advantages to internet-based fundraising in terms of how much easier it is to track donations, report them, and cultivate a relationship with donors who has already put themselves into your database for you.
What I am much more interested in is the number of small donors, because experience shows that these people are very likely to give several times more over the course of the campaign. I don't have the exact stats handy, but a study of Dean's Meetup members showed they gave an average of something like $250 each, in multiple increments. That's why the most interesting news buried in Obama's numbers may be this fact: about 50% of his online donations were in increments of $25 or less, and more than 90% of his online donations were $100 or less. What that means is his pool of 50,000 online donors may be the core of a very potent money (and people) engine.
I'd really like to know how many of the 50,000 people who have created a profile on MyBarackObama.com have given money, how many of the 9,000 bloggers on the site have given money, and how many of the 4,000+ volunteer groups now on the site have set up donation pages that raised money...